September 2010:
Despite much caution and speculation by the pessimists in the media about a
double dip recession as well as obscure fringe concepts such as Hindenburg
omens and the media's predictions that the September/October timeframe was
going to be a difficult period for equities, the US equity market, as
measured by the S&P 500 index, had the best September return since 1939.
This was the case despite the rants and words of caution by bearish
commentators. Although some of these commentators successfully called the
"meltdown in 2008", albeit with a long lead time, many have remained
negative despite the fact that the equity market has now almost recovered
its entire decline since the Lehman bankruptcy induced meltdown in the Fall
of 2008. It is of little benefit to investors for commentators to correctly
predict a decline but then fail to turn positive at any point of the
subsequent rally which has seen equity returns of 74% for the S&P and
115% for the TSX Composite off of the bottom reached less than two years ago.
We reiterate our comment from previous commentaries that it is our belief
that equities will continue to show surprising strength to many investors.
It is interesting to note that very strong Septembers have been associated
with excellent returns over the balance of the year. It is our prediction
that this will likely be the case in 2010.
March 2009:
"As we noted in our October 2008 commentary, 'the markets formed a
classic panic low in October'. If it were not for tax loss selling
issues, Canadian small cap stocks would likely have held their October
lows, but as it turned out the final low was made on December 5th for
the TSX Venture index. "
"…history has demonstrated once again, it is
generally unwise to sell equities at times of extreme fear and panic."
"…when the pendulum swings the other way,
significant gains can be quick and euphoric."
"We believe markets will continue to rally"
October 2008:
"As we indicated in our last monthly commentary, we noted that a significant
market low was near. It appears that this occurred in October as markets
formed a classic panic low. This sets the stage for a return to
fundamentals, normal levels of volatility and possibly, a significant rally."